Not too soft, Jerome

Not too soft, Jerome

Not too soft Jerome 1 hour 12 minutes ago Bonds started the day in weaker territory but until the AM econ data, yields weren’t any higher than yesterday’s highs. Following Data, he was held up in the Sellers’ races, but not in the straight. The jobless claims data was the big issue as it came in much lower than expected and in the NFP poll for the week to boot. The implied result is a higher risk of having a large NFP number in two weeks. Bonds traded incrementally on that, but not quite sure how to do that given the state of the flow in expectations of a Fed rate hike after the latest CPI data. Looking another way, CPI argued for a softer stance from the Fed next week while today’s data says “Not too soft, Jerome!” Jobless Claims 228K vs. 242K vs. 237K, Philly Fed -13.5 vs. -10 Fcast, -13.7 ex. Existing Home Sales 4.16M vs. 4.2M Over the Hour, 4.3M vs. 08:54AM Weaker overnight with Treasuries selling more aggressively than EU Bonds. More doubling after the data. 10 years, up 7.7 bps at 3.825. Mohammed bin Salman goes down 3/8/10 10:18 AM Double more. 10 years, 10.4 bps at 3.852. MBS is down 3/4, but the lack of liquidity amplifies the apparent losses. 03:11 PM Modest gains for Muhammad bin Salman, as the closure approaches. 5.5 down 11 marks (.34). 10 years to 10.8 bps at 3.856. Exceeding Mohammed bin Salman in performance 05:27 PM, Mohammed bin Salman closed with a loss of only 3/8 points. 10 seconds underperformed, up 11 basis points at 3.858. Download our mobile app to get alerts on MBS Suspension, MBS Stream and Treasury Rates.

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